Households in the United States expect inflation to remain steady, according to the November 2025 Survey of Consumer Expectations released by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Center for Microeconomic Data. The survey, conducted from November 1 through November 30, found that median inflation expectations stayed at 3.2% for one year ahead and at 3.0% for both three-year and five-year horizons.
The report noted a decrease in disagreement among respondents about future inflation rates across all timeframes. Uncertainty regarding future inflation outcomes was unchanged at the one- and three-year horizons but decreased at five years.
Expectations for home price growth remained stable at 3.0% for the sixth month in a row. Meanwhile, households anticipated higher costs in several areas over the next year: food prices are expected to rise by 5.9%, gas by 4.1%, college education by 8.4%, rent by 8.3%, and medical care by 10.1%. The expectation for medical care cost increases is now at its highest level since January 2014.
Labor market expectations showed modest improvement. Median earnings growth expectations held steady at 2.6%. The perceived probability that unemployment will be higher a year from now declined slightly to 42.1%. Fewer respondents believe they will lose their jobs in the next year (13.8%), which is the lowest reading since December 2024, while voluntary job quitting expectations also dropped to their lowest point since February 2025 (17.7%). The likelihood of finding a new job if currently unemployed increased marginally to 47.3%.
In terms of household finances, expected income growth edged up to 2.9%, matching its average over the past year, while anticipated spending growth rose slightly to 5%. Respondents reported tougher credit conditions compared with last year and were less optimistic about access to credit going forward.
The average perceived chance of missing a minimum debt payment within three months increased to 13.7%. Expected tax increases reached their highest level since June 2024, with respondents forecasting a rise of up to 4.1%. Anticipated government debt growth also hit its highest mark since July 2024 at an expected rate of increase of 9.2%.
Expectations that savings account interest rates would be higher in twelve months fell slightly to just over one-quarter of respondents (24.1%). Views on personal financial situations worsened; more people reported being worse off than last year, and fewer expect improvement over the coming year.
Respondents’ confidence that U.S stock prices will be higher in twelve months dropped slightly as well, down one percentage point from October’s survey result.
According to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, “The SCE contains information about how consumers expect overall inflation and prices for food, gas, housing, and education to behave. It also provides insight into Americans’ views about job prospects and earnings growth and their expectations about future spending and access to credit.” They added: “The SCE also provides measures of uncertainty regarding consumers’ outlooks.”
The Survey of Consumer Expectations samples around 1,200 household heads nationwide each month via an internet-based panel designed so participants can be tracked over time rather than replaced every wave.
